The US and Israel on 28 February launched a large-scale, coordinated air campaign against Iran, striking a broad range of leadership, military, security and nuclear targets. A forced government change is now a key objective according to S&P Global Market Intelligence country risk analysts.
An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt both crude oil and LNG shipments. For LNG, Qatar, the UAE and Oman (which may be affected indirectly) accounting for 20.9% of global trade in LNG in 2025, with Pakistan and India most exposed to supplies from the three.
Without an extended closure of the Strait or the destruction of liquefaction assets, the impact is unlikely to be long-term in nature. IRGC targeting is likely to expand to critical Gulf energy infrastructure if US and Israeli strikes target Iranian critical national infrastructure and major crude export terminals according to market intelligence.
Container shipping faces disruptions both to transshipment hubs including Jebel Ali within the Strait of Hormuz as well as via the Red Sea due to increased attack risks from the Houthi regime in Yemen. Container lines including CMA CGM and Maersk have already suspended shipping via the Red Sea. Emergency surcharges for shipping in the Gulf and Red Sea of up to US$3,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit have already been applied. A return to rates seen in January 2024 could result in rates two to three times higher than current levels.
Critical is whether regime change occurs, with the resulting peace reducing support for Houthi attacks on shipping, allowing a return to fundamental supply and factors to drive rates. If conflict continues, rates could remain elevated. The uncertainties are likely to mean that cargo owners will pursue a mixture of locked-in and indexed rates.
Global air freight networks face challenges from the halt to flights through many of the regional ports, including the hubs of Doha and Dubai, which handle around 2.6 million metric tons and 2.2 million metric tons of airfreight respectively, or around 4.0% of the global total.
The disruptions to Red Sea shipping come just as changing US tariffs bring inventory front-loading pressures, with the share of US imports from Asia via the east coast US ports reaching 39.8% in the three months to January 31, 2026.
