Among other geopolitical and macroeconomic ripples caused by the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, a dual-front supply disruption for helium has emerged in global trade lanes. Helium is a process-critical ingredient in semiconductor production, and Iranian strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — responsible for roughly a third of global helium output — have halted production with no confirmed restart date. Simultaneously, the Strait of Hormuz (the sole export route for Qatari helium) remains functionally blocked, despite several attempts to broker a peace deal. As a global helium shortage looms, cargo insurers should watch for higher-value inbound semiconductor shipments as clients look to secure long-term supply by maximising short-term orders.
Helium is nigh-irreplaceable in semiconductor wafer fabrication, used for thermal management, plasma stability and maintaining ultra-clean production environments. Asian chipmakers, particularly in South Korea (which sourced 64.7% of its helium from Qatar in 2025) and Taiwan, are already operating under rationed supply; some customers are receiving only half of normal volumes. TSMC, which produces ~90% of the world’s most advanced logic chips, is among the most exposed; a disruption to its helium supply could directly threaten approximately $650B in planned AI investments globally.
Spot prices for helium have already doubled since the conflict began, and industry analysts project further surges in the months ahead. Contract prices are slower to change, but analysts estimated a prolonged disruption to drive increases of 40–60%, which could trigger genuine physical shortages in Europe and Asia. Alternative supply from North American producers is limited; the US has no spare production capacity sufficient to offset Qatari volumes, and domestic sources face strong incentive to prioritise internal strategic demand driven by the CHIPS Act To make matters worse, Russia imposed export controls on helium effective 14 April 2026, removing a potential counterweight to lost Qatari supply from the market.
Cargo insurance providers should closely monitor for a steady growth in higher-value, increased-frequency semiconductor chip shipment submissions, as companies look to secure critical inventory ahead of deepening shortages. With this valuable commodity potentially traveling in larger volumes and higher frequencies, each shipment will carry a higher risk of strategic cargo theft; awareness of client operations, understanding of strategic theft as it appears today and proactive consulting with the assured are key mitigation measures to combat this.
For more information contact riskteam@falveyins.com.
The full paper including references is available to download here: Qatari Helium Shortages Report
