The ongoing war in the Middle East is driving up the prices of natural resources and macroeconomists agree that if the conflict does not end soon the inflationary impact will be felt for years. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF estimates that global consumer prices will rise by about 4.4% to over 6% in 2026, depending on the severity and duration of the conflict.[1]
When inflation runs at this level, it works its way into nearly every cost base – including ship repairs. It is crucial for marine insurers to explain and predict any trends going forward. The IUMI Hull Inflation Index offers a macroeconomic lens on what is pushing claim costs upward. The underlying methodology has relaunched in 2025 and centres on three key drivers: steel prices, wages and shipyard capacity. Our white paper walks through how these feed into the regression model.
Figure 1 Comparison of indexed model output vs. benchmark claim data
In 2026, we refined the model slightly. Additionally, we built a parallel version using only publicly available data – this allows us to share the full methodology and the underlying calculations on our IUMI website. A word of transparency: this public version is for demonstration purposes. The original model relies on third-party data that we cannot share in full. That said, we believe the public version gives a solid basis for anyone who wants to understand the approach or build their own model.
The forecast has also been sharpened and now shows three scenarios for the road ahead.
Figure 2 Forecast of Indexed Claims Cost using Auto ARIMA
Take a look at the updated white paper and the data on our website https://iumi.com/statistics/the-iumi-hull-inflation-index-2026/
Please reach out to our Chief Analyst if would like to discuss further: veith.huesmann@iumi.com
[1] https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities
