Russia’s Novorossiysk port and terminal and the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk on the Black Sea are key commercial locations for export of commodities critical for the global market, including grain, fertilizer and oil products.
In a recent paper, we analyse the current state of play with regard to commercial shipping travelling in and out of these ports; we present a high-impact, lower-likelihood scenario in which escalating conflict in the Black Sea disrupts operations at these four ports; and finally we examine the potential impacts across commercial vessel types, charterers and operators.

Developing the scenario pathway
Black Sea commercial and naval targeting — A state of mutual deterrence
As of end August 2024, the land battle in Ukraine remains at a stalemate, with Russian forces having gained about 850 square km (0.15% of Ukraine’s total land area) since January 2024. In this context, Ukraine’s remote attack capabilities, including uncrewed aerial and surface vehicles (UAVs and USVs), have become increasingly critical. Ukraine has demonstrated an ongoing ability to target Russian vessels near Crimea with missile strikes and domestically manufactured USVs, the latest of which have a range of 960 km and can carry up to 860 kg of explosives. This has effectively forced Russia to redeploy its remaining naval vessels to Novorossiysk in southern Russia and has prevented it from mounting amphibious operations within Ukrainian waters in support of a ground offensive.

Following the expiry of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, Ukraine has successfully implemented its unilateral ‘humanitarian corridor’, launched in August 2023. This shipping corridor follows the coast through the territorial waters of the NATO states of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, deterring Russia from interfering with grain shipments and other marine cargo out of Odesa and southern Ukraine. As of June 25, 2024, more than 1,950 vessels had exported over 55 million metric tons (MMt) of cargo via Ukraine’s ‘humanitarian corridor’ since its launch on Aug. 15, 2023, including approximately 37.4 MMt of agricultural exports. About 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports are currently shipped by sea, with pre-war levels being restored by April 2024. However, Russia and Ukraine have previously demonstrated the capability to target commercial vessels heading to their opponent’s ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. 
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