The Gulf remains in a state of elevated alert. During the US Presidential election process, the littoral powers made a number of moves to set out their stall whilst Iran continued to play a strategic waiting game and was not drawn into making a response that could have provoked a reaction.
The international audience were reassured when the incoming President Biden stated in his inauguration speech that the US would “lead not merely by the example of our power but the power of our example”. This was a welcome sign of new thinking and there is some anticipation that American foreign policy may soften in stance.
However, two security incidents late last year were concerning for underwriters. The attack on the AGRARI featured an explosion about one metre above the waterline. This was suggestive of an unmanned water borne device rather than a mine as that would have damaged the vessel at or below the waterline. In December, the Panamax product tanker BW RHINE suffered an explosion while discharging at Jeddah.
Apparently similar to the AGRARI, this was 360 nautical miles from the Yemen border and well beyond the previous Houthi operational area. It implied control of explosive drone boats from a mothership or perhaps the use of an armed UAV. The Houthis attained a similar distance with the Quds type of long-range drone in the attack against the Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq in 2019.
Additionally, Qasef-1 drones, designed in Iran, can be used as a low-budget guided missile, and are thought to have been employed against the Aramco pipeline, indicating the necessary accuracy to hit a stationary ship in Jeddah although there is to date, no proven instance of it being done.
Drone boats designed to impact vessel hulls can be 10m long, fast, sophisticated and difficult to counter, so underwriters will be all too aware that the threat to shipping continues undiminished. The new twist is that the Houthis have extended reach through better hardware and have signalled their ability to target ships at significant range rather than relying on towed, propelled, or limpet mines near the Yemeni coast.
