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Navigating sanctions evasion: Trade analysis of high-priority goods exports to Russia

By Jérémy Domballe, Senior Product Specialist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Various governments and supranational blocks and organisations have rolled out sanctions against Russia with the most active being the UK, US and EU. From assets, individuals, entities, export controls and more, various measures have been put into place, increasing the scope within due diligence processes. S&P Global Market Intelligence has been closely observing sanctions issued against the Russian government, companies and individuals since the invasion of Ukraine began, highlighting the continuous month-over-month sanctions issuance since February 2022. Our key takeaways are:

  • Trade data reported by Russia prior to its invasion of Ukraine shows a ramp-up in import of critical items for military equipment, with trade value up 21% in 2021 compared with 2020, accounting for 4.3% of Russia's total imports during that year. Mirror trade in 2022 sharply declined 38%, accounting for 3.5% of total imports, followed by a 10% increase in 2023.
  • Russia's import partners have steadily increased since 2000: 82 in 2000, 112 in 2010 and 147 in 2020.
  • Dependence on mainland China and Hong Kong has continued to grow; trade with mainland China increased 41% during 2022, while trade with Hong Kong increased 18% during the same period.
  • The three markets that were engaged in considerable export/re-export activity to Russia were Thailand (up 1,083%), India (up 200%) and Turkey (up 60%), whereas Kazakhstan's export/re-export to Russia dipped 4%. These six markets — mainland China, Hong Kong, Thailand, India, Turkey and Kazakhstan — accounted for 66% of reported common high-priority items (CHPIs) export/re-export to Russia in 2023, but now account for 92%.
  • Air freight registered a significant increase of 263% between 2022 and 2023. This modality, which only accounted for 6% in 2021, increased to 19% in 2022 and 29% in 2023, with more than 88% showing the "port" of lading as Istanbul New Airport.

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